When state capacity dissolves: Explaining variation in violent conflict and conflict moderation. (6th April 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gledhill, John
• Is Part Of: European journal of international security. Volume 2:Number 2(2017)
• Page Start: 153
• Page End: 178
• Publication Date: 2017-04-06
• Subjects: State Capacity, -- Civil Conflict, -- State-Society Relations, -- Conflict Management; Security, International -- Periodicals; 327.17
• DOI: 10.1017/eis.2017.1
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2057-5645

Abstract

Abstract: When state capacity dissolves, we ordinarily assume that violent conflict will break out, and then spiral towards a high degree of intensity. However, this is not always the case. Rather, on occasion, states suffer a sharp and severe loss of capacity, but little or no collective violence follows. And, on other occasions, violent conflict erupts, but that conflict does not escalate into civil war; rather, it plateaus, and then recedes. This article offers an analytic framework for explaining such variation in the presence, absence, and intensity of violent conflict following a dissolution of state capacity. I argue that the strength of state and societal organs prior to a loss of state capacity shapes the broad trajectory of violence after such a loss. In making that claim, I associate three state-society dynamics before state dissolution with three levels of violent conflict, post-dissolution. Drawing on multi-country fieldwork, I illustrate the proposed framework by presenting three diverse cases of dissolving state capacity and conflict: Georgia (1991–3); Albania (1991–2); and Yemen (2011–13).