The leap in the dark: Geological thoughts about an unpredictable planet. Issue 4 (20th April 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Todesco, M.
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 122:Issue 4(2017)
• Page Start: 2780
• Page End: 2783
• Publication Date: 2017-04-20
• Subjects: uncertainty -- outreach -- resilience -- natural hazards -- scientific method -- society; Geomagnetism -- Periodicals; Geochemistry -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Earth sciences -- Periodicals; 551.1
• DOI: 10.1002/2017JB014274
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-9313

Abstract

Abstract: We live on a dynamic planet that changes continuously. Most of the times, we are unaware of its restless motion, so slow that only satellites capture it. But the calm is only apparent, and we appreciate the entire magnitude of the forces at play when natural disasters strike. Earth Science explores how and when the quiet breaks, but we do not have access to the interior of the planet. We rely on indirect information to constrain complex processes that we cannot observe or reproduce in our laboratories. As a result, our knowledge is incomplete and our assessments are burden with unavoidable uncertainty. Should we not talk about it? Key Points: Hazardous natural phenomena are often unpredictable A better understanding of uncertainty in scientific assessments contributes to mitigation and resilience Outreach activity during peace time should represent uncertainty in science and emphasize its consequences