A new approach to the study of partisan effects on social policy. Issue 6 (17th June 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Loftis, Matt W.; Mortensen, Peter B.
• Is Part Of: Journal of European public policy. Volume 24:Issue 6(2017)
• Page Start: 890
• Page End: 911
• Publication Date: 2017-06-17
• Subjects: dynamic linear model -- Europe -- government partisanship -- public budgeting -- social welfare benefits; European Union countries -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; Political planning -- European Union countries -- Periodicals; Politique publique -- Pays de l'Union européenne -- Périodiques; Pays de l'Union européenne -- Politique et gouvernement -- Périodiques; 361.61094
• DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2017.1298656
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1350-1763

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Much research has analysed the influence of government partisanship on social policies. This contribution addresses three challenges in that literature. First, it advocates a dynamic linear modelling (DLM) approach well suited to address time-varying partisan effects. Second, the DLM makes it possible to examine partisan effects country-by-country, thereby avoiding the cross-national pooling approach dominating this literature. Third, it offers a new approach to the challenge of choosing the right control variables. Empirically, we demonstrate the approach using data from 1972 to 2011 from 14 Western European countries. The main conclusion is that the relationship between government partisanship and welfare generosity does not appear to vary over time according to any pattern predicted by existing theories. More generally, findings indicate that in the countries and years covered by this study, government partisanship has very little or no association with the five different social policy measures included in the analyses.