Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics. (21st May 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Valdez, L.D.; Sibona, G.J.; Diaz, L.A.; Contigiani, M.S.; Condat, C.A.
• Is Part Of: Journal of theoretical biology. Volume 421(2017)
• Page Start: 28
• Page End: 38
• Publication Date: 2017-05-21
• Subjects: Culex -- Rainfall -- Arbovirus -- Mosquito abundance -- Mathematical modeling; Biology -- Periodicals; Biological Science Disciplines -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biologie -- Périodiques; Theoretische biologie; Biology; Periodicals; 571.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.03.024
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-5193

Abstract

Highlights: We model the Culex mosquito abundance dynamics under different rainfall regimes. We introduce the variability in daily rainfall using a fracturing process. The mosquito abundance is a nonlinear function of the number of rainy days. Increasing rainfall variability favors mosquito production in the low rainfall regime. Abstract: The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes Mmax . Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on Mmax . We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which Mmax is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of Mmax on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.