A fuzzy-stochastic power system planning model: Reflection of dual objectives and dual uncertainties. (15th March 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, X.Y.; Huang, G.H.; Zhu, H.; Li, Y.P.
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 123(2017)
• Page Start: 664
• Page End: 676
• Publication Date: 2017-03-15
• Subjects: Electric power system -- Carbon dioxide emissions -- Dual uncertainties -- Fractional programming -- Capacity-expansion planning; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.072
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: In this study, a fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed for supporting sustainable management of electric power system (EPS) under dual uncertainties. As an improvement upon the mixed-integer linear fractional programming, FSDFP can not only tackle multi-objective issues effectively without setting weights, but also can deal with uncertain parameters which have both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. Thus, the developed method can help provide valuable information for supporting capacity-expansion planning and in-depth policy analysis of EPS management problems. For demonstrating these advantages, FSDFP has been applied to a case study of a typical regional EPS planning, where the decision makers have to deal with conflicts between economic development that maximizes the system profit and environmental protection that minimizes the carbon dioxide emissions. The obtained results can be analyzed to generate several decision alternatives, and can then help decision makers make suitable decisions under different input scenarios. Furthermore, comparisons of the solution from FSDFP method with that from fuzzy stochastic dynamic linear programming, linear fractional programming and dynamic stochastic fractional programming methods are undertaken. The contrastive analysis reveals that FSDFP is a more effective approach that can better characterize the complexities and uncertainties of real EPS management problems. Highlights: A fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed. FSDFP can address multiple conflicting objectives without setting weights. FSDFP can reflect dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. Some reasonable solutions for a case of power system sustainable planning are generated. Comparisons of the solutions from FSDFP with other optimization methods are undertaken.