Analysis of downscaled climatic simulations to infer future changes on high precipitation in Spain. Issue 2 (3rd April 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Barranco, Luis M.; Álvarez-Rodríguez, Javier; Olivera, Francisco; Potenciano, Ángela
• Is Part Of: International journal of river basin management. Volume 15:Issue 2(2017)
• Page Start: 161
• Page End: 173
• Publication Date: 2017-04-03
• Subjects: Climate change -- downscaled simulations -- extreme events -- high precipitation -- Spain; Watershed management -- Periodicals; Water resources development -- Periodicals; Hydraulic engineering -- Periodicals; Watershed hydrology -- Periodicals; Water resources development; Watershed management; Watersheds; Periodicals; 551.483
• DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2017.1280815
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1814-2060

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when compared with observed data, and the variability among the different DCS results.