Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling. (15th May 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: DeCarolis, Joseph; Daly, Hannah; Dodds, Paul; Keppo, Ilkka; Li, Francis; McDowall, Will; Pye, Steve; Strachan, Neil; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Usher, Will; Winning, Matthew; Yeh, Sonia; Zeyringer, Marianne
• Is Part Of: Applied energy. Volume 194(2017)
• Page Start: 184
• Page End: 198
• Publication Date: 2017-05-15
• Subjects: Energy system models -- Uncertainty -- Modelling guidance; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy conservation -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Periodicals; 621.042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-2619

Abstract

Highlights: Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are a critical tool for policy analysis. Significant modeler judgment is required, yet little formal guidance exists. This paper formalizes best practice for energy system optimization modelling. We outline a set of principles and modelling steps to guide ESOM-based analysis. Formalized guidance comes at a critical time as ESOMs inform climate policy. Abstract: Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are widely used to generate insight that informs energy and environmental policy. Using ESOMs to produce policy-relevant insight requires significant modeler judgement, yet little formal guidance exists on how to conduct analysis with ESOMs. To address this shortcoming, we draw on our collective modelling experience and conduct an extensive literature review to formalize best practice for energy system optimization modelling. We begin by articulating a set of overarching principles that can be used to guide ESOM-based analysis. To help operationalize the guiding principles, we outline and explain critical steps in the modelling process, including how to formulate research questions, set spatio-temporal boundaries, consider appropriate model features, conduct and refine the analysis, quantify uncertainty, and communicate insights. We highlight the need to develop and refine formal guidance on ESOM application, which comes at a critical time as ESOMs are being used to inform national climate targets.