Understanding the modes of use and availability of critical metals – An expert-based scenario analysis for the case of indium. (1st May 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Weiser, Annika; Lang, Daniel J.; Schomerus, Thomas; Stamp, Anna
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 94(2015:May 01)
• Page Start: 376
• Page End: 393
• Publication Date: 2015-05-01
• Subjects: Critical metals -- Resource scarcity -- Resource governance -- Sustainable resource management -- Formative scenario analysis; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.01.079
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: Natural resources are an essential pillar of today's economic and technological innovation. Growing demand, in particular for certain metals relevant for emerging technologies such as low-carbon energy production, has recently led to supply concerns especially in resource-importing high-tech countries in Europe and North America. Current approaches for facing the challenges linked to supply security and general modes of use and re-use often focus on either technological innovation or on the development of relevant governance interventions, but lack a common pursuance of objectives. We used an expert-based formative scenario analysis to examine the role these approaches play in the case of indium, and how they interrelate. We identified four exemplary scenarios that reflect how indium use may be influenced in different ways: (i) an extrapolation of today's trends (business as usual); (ii) a focus on the recycling phase; (iii) a governance system with stringent governmental regulations; and (iv) a governance system with well-balanced power structures and cooperation. We then analyzed these system scenarios in terms of their plausibility when assuming different surrounding conditions (shell scenarios) to determine their overall robustness. The evaluation of the scenarios showed that measures should be taken to optimize life-cycle interfaces, including both primary and secondary production. We show that the state is a vital actor within the system of resource production and consumption, but has a limited operating range on an international scale. It must therefore provide the appropriate conditions to allow the evolution of private industry initiatives, which then can also contribute to the system's robustness. As a result, strategies targeting sustainable resource use could be the appropriate instrument to formulate a common objective and to more effectively coordinate such approaches for fostering sustainable indium use. Highlights: The various technology options and governance interventions approaching indium criticality are often pursued separately. We conduct a formative scenario analysis to determine requirements for robust sets of these approaches. The state is a vital actor for framing conditions, but must leave space for private industry initiatives to evolve. Strategies could help to formulate the lacking common objective on an international scale.