The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Issue 17 (11th September 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Jones, Andy; Haywood, Jim M.; Alterskjær, Kari; Boucher, Olivier; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Ben; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Schmidt, Hauke; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin‐Ho
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 118:Issue 17(2013)
• Page Start: 9743
• Page End: 9752
• Publication Date: 2013-09-11
• Subjects: geoengineering -- termination -- climate change -- climate model -- intercomparison -- GeoMIP; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50762
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-897X

Abstract

Abstract : [1] We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global‐mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global‐mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea‐ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global‐mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea‐ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes. Key Points: Impacts of the abrupt termination of geoengineering are compared in 11 GCMs The models agree on very rapid global-mean warming following termination Levels of agreement vary on the geographic patterns of climatic change