Comparison of Realized Measure and Implied Volatility in Forecasting Volatility. (7th June 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Han, Heejoon; Park, Myung D.
• Is Part Of: Journal of forecasting. Volume 32:Number 6(2013:Sep.)
• Page Start: 522
• Page End: 533
• Publication Date: 2013-06-07
• Subjects: volatility forecast -- realized kernel -- VIX -- GARCH‐X -- HEAVY models; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 003.2
• DOI: 10.1002/for.2253
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-6693

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper compares the information content of realized measures constructed from high‐frequency data and implied volatilities from options in the context of forecasting volatility. The comparison is based on within‐sample and out‐of‐sample (over horizons of 1–22 days) forecasts of daily S&P 500 index return volatility. The paper adds to the findings of previous studies, by considering recent developments in the related practice and the literature. It is shown that, for within‐sample fitting, the realized measure is more informative than the implied volatility. In contrast, the implied volatility is more informative than the realized measure for out‐of‐sample forecasting, in particular for multi‐step‐ahead forecasting. Moreover, we show that it is helpful to use all the information provided by the realized measure and the implied volatility for the within‐sample fitting. For multi‐step‐ahead forecasting, however, it is better to use only the implied volatility. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.