Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change. Issue 1 (5th October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Diamond, Sarah E.
• Other Names: Fox Charles W. guestEditor.; Mousseau Timothy A. guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Volume 1389:Issue 1(2017)
• Page Start: 5
• Page End: 19
• Publication Date: 2016-10-05
• Subjects: heritability -- adaptive capacity -- evolutionary potential -- thermal tolerance -- temperature -- climate change; Medical sciences -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Science -- Periodicals; 610
• DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13223
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0077-8923

Abstract

Abstract : How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness‐related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta‐analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.