China's energy system transformation towards the 2 °C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles. (April 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xunzhang, Pan; Wenying, Chen; Clarke, Leon E.; Lining, Wang; Guannan, Liu
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 103(2017)
• Page Start: 116
• Page End: 126
• Publication Date: 2017-04
• Subjects: China -- Energy system transformation -- INDC -- Carbon budgets -- Effort-sharing; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.020
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: In coping with climate change, China's CO2 mitigation targets should keep in step with the achievement of the long-term goal of holding temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (this is referred to as the 2 °C goal). Many previous papers have highlighted the implications of different effort-sharing principles and schemes in determining national contributions to global mitigations. In this paper, China's energy transformation towards the 2 °C goal until 2100 is examined in an integrated-assessment model in light of different effort-sharing principles to understand how the application of such schemes may alter China's energy system transformation on a pathway to this long-term goal. Across scenarios, China's non-fossil energy will account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100, respectively in the scenarios in this study. Fossil energy with carbon capture and storage technologies and non-fossil energy will dominate power generation in China over the long run. Coal will be phased out in end-use sectors and electricity use will expand regardless of the effort-sharing principles. The sensitivity analysis of long-term steady-state levels implies that the ultimate level that emissions could reach will have great influences on the energy system transformation in China. Highlights: China's energy transformation towards the 2 °C goal until 2100 are examined in a bottom-up model. The implications of effort-sharing principles on China's mitigations beyond 2030 are analyzed. The achievement of China's INDC is incorporated in the discussion. The sensitivity analysis of long-term emissions levels is discussed. Non-fossil energy would account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100.