Flood frequency analysis for alterations of extreme maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta. (1st January 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, Wei; Cao, Yu; Zhu, Yuliang; Wu, Yao; Ji, Xiaomei; He, Yong; Xu, Yanwen; Wang, Weiguang
• Is Part Of: Ocean engineering. Volume 129(2017)
• Page Start: 117
• Page End: 132
• Publication Date: 2017-01-01
• Subjects: Coastal flooding -- Return period -- Water level -- GEV model -- Pearl River Delta; Ocean engineering -- Periodicals; Ocean engineering; Periodicals; 620.4162
• DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.11.013
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0029-8018

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the annual maximum water level record spanning about 60 years at 34 gauging stations, we conduct flood frequency analysis in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV model performs sound estimation with the correlation coefficient at most stations larger than 0.99. To better understand the flood risk especially in ungauged regions, the spatial distribution of flood-stage is displayed for three given return periods, 10-year, 20-year and 50-year. Similar pattern can be identified for different return periods except the difference in magnitude, which generally exhibits a decreasing trend from the upper region to offshore area with a scope of about 2–9 m. Additionally, a comparison between pre-1980 and post-1980 is carried out to quantify the flood-stage alteration. The results show that most stations display increasing flood risk except for some stations in the upper estuaries, which experienced slight water level decline. Particularly, the lower part of the PRD is vulnerable to the most severe flood-stage increment. The estimated extreme water level increases by 0.35 m (14.96%), 0.59 m (21.23%) and 1.06 m (29.96%) on average at stations corresponding to 10-year, 20-year and 50-year return period, respectively. Highlights: Detect the spatial distribution of the flood-stage with GEV model in the Pearl River Delta. Quantify the alterations of flood-stage for different return periods and make interpretation. The underlying flood risk in the middle and lower part of the PRD tends to increase.