Misspecified Recovery. (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: BOROVIČKA, JAROSLAV; HANSEN, LARS PETER; SCHEINKMAN, JOSÉ A.
• Is Part Of: Journal of finance. Volume 71:Number 6(2016:Dec.)
• Page Start: 2493
• Page End: 2544
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Finance -- Periodicals; Finance -- United States -- Periodicals; 332.05
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12404
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-1082

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from risk‐adjusted discounting, we use Perron–Frobenius Theory to isolate a positive martingale component of the stochastic discount factor process. This component recovers a probability measure that absorbs long‐term risk adjustments. When the martingale is not degenerate, surmising that this recovered probability captures investors' beliefs distorts inference about risk‐return tradeoffs. Stochastic discount factors in many structural models of asset prices have empirically relevant martingale components.