Renewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend. (August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Duscha, Vicki; Fougeyrollas, Arnaud; Nathani, Carsten; Pfaff, Matthias; Ragwitz, Mario; Resch, Gustav; Schade, Wolfgang; Breitschopf, Barbara; Walz, Rainer
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 95(2016)
• Page Start: 314
• Page End: 323
• Publication Date: 2016-08
• Subjects: Renewables deployment -- Support policies -- GHG reductions -- Security of supply -- Macroeconomic impacts; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.011
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this "triple dividend", at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets. Highlights: Our modelling of a dedicated 2030 RES policy provides evidence on the triple dividend hypothesis. EU imports of fossil fuels can be reduced by €154/180 bn, related CO2 emissions by 930/1195 Mt. Net GDP changes amount to 0.1–0.8% of EU GDP, net employment effects amount to 90–1500 thousand jobs. Strengthened national policies show larger macroeconomic benefits in the medium term.