The PRECOS framework: Measuring the impacts of the global changes on soils, water, agriculture on territories to better anticipate the future. (1st October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Trolard, Fabienne; Bourrié, Guilhem; Baillieux, Antoine; Buis, Samuel; Chanzy, André; Clastre, Philippe; Closet, Jean-François; Courault, Dominique; Dangeard, Marie-Lorraine; Di Virgilio, Nicola; Dussouilliez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Gasc, Jérémy; Géniaux, Ghislain; Jouan, Rachel; Keller, Catherine; Lecharpentier, Patrice; Lecroart, Jean; Napoleone, Claude; Mohammed, Gihan; Olioso, Albert; Reynders, Suzanne; Rossi, Federica; Tennant, Mike; de Vicente Lopez, Javier
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental management. Volume 181(2016)
• Page Start: 590
• Page End: 601
• Publication Date: 2016-10-01
• Subjects: Soil -- Water -- Resources -- Territory -- Urban sprawl -- Climate change; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; 363.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4797

Abstract

Abstract: In a context of increased land and natural resources scarcity, the possibilities for local authorities and stakeholders of anticipating evolutions or testing the impact of envisaged developments through scenario simulation are new challenges. PRECOS's approach integrates data pertaining to the fields of water and soil resources, agronomy, urbanization, land use and infrastructure etc. It is complemented by a socio-economic and regulatory analysis of the territory illustrating its constraints and stakes. A modular architecture articulates modeling software and spatial and temporal representations tools. It produces indicators in three core domains: soil degradation, water and soil resources and agricultural production. As a territory representative of numerous situations of the Mediterranean Basin (urban pressures, overconsumption of spaces, degradation of the milieus), a demonstration in the Crau's area (Southeast of France) has allowed to validate a prototype of the approach and to test its feasibility in a real life situation. Results on the Crau area have shown that, since the beginning of the 16th century, irrigated grasslands are the cornerstones of the anthropic-system, illustrating how successfully men's multi-secular efforts have maintained a balance between environment and local development. But today the ecosystem services are jeopardized firstly by urban sprawl and secondly by climate change. Pre-diagnosis in regions of Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and Valencia (Spain) show that local end-users and policy-makers are interested by this approach. The modularity of indicator calculations and the availability of geo-databases indicate that PRECOS may be up scaled in other socio-economic contexts. Graphical abstract: Highlights: To better anticipate the future in land planning measuring the impacts of global changes on soil, water and agriculture is a strong challenge. PRECOS turns heterogeneous data into actionable information for territorial management. Indicators take quantitative and qualitative information on the dynamics of the territory. Tests of scenarios at medium term for evaluation the deterioration risks of local environmental assets and the levers for action.