Analysis of achievable residential energy-saving potential and its implications for effective policy interventions: A study of Xiamen city in southern China. (September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guo, Fei; Kurdgelashvili, Lado; Bengtsson, Magnus; Akenji, Lewis
• Is Part Of: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. Volume 62(2016:Sep.)
• Page Start: 507
• Page End: 520
• Publication Date: 2016-09
• Subjects: AC air conditioner -- ACEEE American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy -- AR adoption rate -- BAU business-as-usual -- BPI Best-Policy-Intervention -- EEG energy efficiency gap -- EEL energy efficiency level -- EES&L Energy Efficiency Standard and Labelling schemes for appliances -- EIA Energy Information Administration of the U.S. -- EPA Environmental Protection Agency of the U.S. -- FESL Frozen Energy-Service-Level scenario -- FSAC fixed-speed air conditioner -- IESL Increasing Energy-Service-Level scenario -- MAP maximum achievable potential of energy savings -- NEMS National Energy Modelling System of the U.S. EIA -- NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the U.S. -- PAP possible achievable potential of energy savings -- PJ petajoule -- PPI Possible-Policy-Intervention -- REC Residential Energy Consumption -- RECS Residential Energy Consumption Survey of the U.S. EIA -- RDM Residential Demand Module of NEMS -- SPBT simple payback time -- TJ terajoule -- UEC Unit Energy Consumption -- VSAC variable-speed air conditioner -- XBS Xiamen Bureau of Statistics; Energy-saving potential -- Energy consumption projection -- Policy evaluation -- Residential buildings -- China; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.04.070
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-0321

Abstract

Abstract: This paper explores opportunities for effective policy intervention for residential energy savings in southern China, by analyzing achievable potential of residential energy savings in the city of Xiamen as a case study. In contrast to static technical and economic potential analyses, the achievable potential analysis is based on dynamic energy consumption projections, which consider two real-world factors: (1) gradual ramping-up adoption process of advanced technical measures; and (2) consumers' adoption of these measures. A bottom-up type Residential Energy Consumption (REC) projection model specifically tailored for southern China was developed in this paper, based on the general logic and calculation principles utilized in the U.S. EIA's "National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), " and the adoption theory of advanced technical measures proposed by Kastovich. This REC projection model was then used as a policy analysis tool to quantitatively evaluate the impact of various policies on residential energy savings in the case study city of Xiamen. The analysis of the Xiamen case shows that although there is a significant technical potential for residential energy savings in the city (about 20.9–24.9%), the maximum achievable potential (MAP) in 2020 is only about 8.3–8.4% of that year's business-as-usual baseline consumption. Moreover, with existing policies only about one-fourth to half of the calculated MAP is likely to be achieved by 2020. These findings indicate that in order to realize a larger share of achievable potential for residential energy savings in China, additional and more effective polices are needed.