A probabilistic study of the return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Issue 17 (5th September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Södergren, A. Helena; Bodeker, Gregory E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Meinshausen, Malte; McDonald, Adrian J.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 43:Issue 17(2016)
• Page Start: 9289
• Page End: 9297
• Publication Date: 2016-09-05
• Subjects: stratospheric ozone -- simple climate model -- ozone projection uncertainties -- MAGICC; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069700
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone‐depleting substances are expected to continue to affect concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere through the 21st century. While a range of estimates for when stratospheric ozone is expected to return to unperturbed levels is available in the literature, quantification of the spread in results is sparse. Here we present the first probabilistic study of latitudinally resolved years of return of stratospheric ozone to 1960 levels. Results from our 180‐member ensemble, simulated with a newly developed simple climate model, suggest that the spread in return years of ozone is largest around 40°N/S and in the southern high latitudes and decreases with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The spread in projections of ozone is larger for higher greenhouse gas scenarios and is larger in the polar regions than in the midlatitudes, while the spread in ozone radiative forcing is smallest in the polar regions. Key Points: Large ensembles of stratospheric ozone projections and dates of return of ozone to 1960 levels are reported for the first time Analysis shows strong dependence of the spread in dates of return on latitude and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios