Future Non-Analogue Climates for Scotland's Temperate Rainforest. (1st October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ellis, Christopher J.; Eaton, Sally
• Is Part Of: Scottish geographical journal. Volume 132:Number 3/4(2016)
• Page Start: 257
• Page End: 268
• Publication Date: 2016-10-01
• Subjects: bryophyte -- climate change -- epiphytes -- lichen -- woodland ecology -- WorldClim; Geography -- Periodicals; Scotland -- Geography -- Periodicals; 910.5
• DOI: 10.1080/14702541.2016.1197964
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1470-2541

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Temperate rainforest is restricted to a globally rare set of climatic conditions. Scotland has among the best remaining examples of intact temperate rainforest in Europe, characterised ecologically by a unique assemblage of epiphytic bryophytes and lichens. Given climatic control on rainforest distribution and ecology, climate change is a probable risk to Scotland's rainforest. This study investigated climate change impacts for 20 target sites, classified based on (i) bioclimatic conditions, and (ii) epiphytic diversity, into contrasting rainforest and more continental (non-rainforest) examples. Space-for-time matching identified climate analogues within the European conservation forest network, which at present have a climate similar to that expected of the target sites during the 2080s (WorldClim datasets). The results show that 2080s analogues for sites in more continental north-eastern Scotland occur in Wales and southern England. However, Scottish rainforest sites were their own 'best analogues' through to the 2080s, despite the fact that their climate is projected to change significantly; they had no suitable future analogue within Europe's conservation forest network. These contrasting regional patterns highlight the need for a flexible approach to species conservation during climate change, including a strategy to cope with ecological uncertainty in Scotland's zone of oceanic rainforest.