The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: A system dynamics approach. (August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Aparicio, Sebastian; Urbano, David; Gómez, Diego
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 81(2016:May)
• Page Start: 130
• Page End: 147
• Publication Date: 2016-08
• Subjects: Innovative entrepreneurship -- Entrepreneurial activity -- Business cycle -- System dynamics -- Scenario analysis -- Colombia; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: System dynamics model is used to assess Colombian business cycle scenarios. Innovative entrepreneurs allow long-term economic growth. Policies should emphasize entrepreneurial attitudes, innovation and collectivism. Abstract: Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these analyses, new Colombian scenarios are discussed, taking into account intentionality towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Following the entrepreneurship research, it is suggested that innovative entrepreneurial activity is linked to long-term economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the role of innovative entrepreneurship in Colombian business cycle scenarios using system dynamics (SD) modelling. Here, we approach futures studies, testing dynamic hypotheses concerning development based on societal and socioeconomic integration, in which innovative entrepreneurship is highly relevant. The model, supported by circular flow analysis and Schumpeterian theory, shows how this type of entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable economic growth during the simulation period (2003–2032). To achieve a 6.77% average growth rate (the higher scenario), policies regarding knowledge transfer from specialized foreign individuals, incumbent firms and universities, as well as incentives for entrepreneurial societies and collectivism, are discussed.