A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports. (August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Halim, Ronald A.; Kwakkel, Jan H.; Tavasszy, Lóránt A.
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 81(2016:May)
• Page Start: 148
• Page End: 160
• Publication Date: 2016-08
• Subjects: Scenario discovery -- Deep uncertainty -- Container shipping -- Global freight logistics; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2015.09.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: We report on a scenario discovery and worst case discovery study for the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam in the global container system. The paper presents worst case discovery as a novel search strategy in the context of scenario discovery utilizing multi-objective optimization. The scenario discovery results indicate that the main vulnerability of the port is the quality of the hinterland connections. The worst case discovery results suggest that the position of Rotterdam is quite robust, both to small changes in a wide range of factors as well as to changes that favor Mediterranean ports. Abstract: The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.