International Futures (IFs) and integrated, long-term forecasting of global transformations. (August 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hughes, Barry B.
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 81(2016:May)
• Page Start: 98
• Page End: 118
• Publication Date: 2016-08
• Subjects: World modeling -- Integrated assessment modeling -- International Futures (IFs) -- Forecasting -- Global transformation; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.007
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: We describe the basic structure and use of the International Futures (IFs) system. We examine global transformations in three areas: human, social, and sustainability. There is a "global law of female role transformation" in fertility and education. Global income distribution, as opposed to intra-country, is narrowing rapidly. The Chinese century may be a short one, given the rise of India. Abstract: The International Futures (IFs) long-term global forecasting system, with a development history spanning 40 years, has deep roots in world modeling and integrated assessment modeling. Its highly integrated models span demographics, economics, education, health, governance, agriculture, energy, infrastructure and the environment. The open-source system is available for stand-alone use and on the web with an interactive interface and a large supporting database. IFs users represent education, government (national and international), non-governmental organizations, firms, and policy research organizations. This paper uses IFs to provide Base Case forecasts of global transformations that appear to be unfolding in human development (special attention to education and aging), social development (distribution and power), and the relationship of humans with their environment (advancing mastery and sustainability challenges). It illustrates scenario analysis with alternative forecasts of global poverty, carbon emissions, global patterns of national governance, the human development index, and food and agricultural development. The paper concludes by noting that such modeling and forecasting, while much advanced since the 1970s, still marries craft-like art with advancing science.