The state of future in international relations. (September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bilgin, Mert
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 82(2016:Jun.)
• Page Start: 52
• Page End: 62
• Publication Date: 2016-09
• Subjects: Theory -- Methodology -- International relations -- Futures -- Futures studies; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.05.011
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: The policy aspect of IR occasionally benefits from FS techniques, where as the theory aspect indicates an extensive unawareness of the field. Foresight, scenario building, Delphi and backcasting are the most distinctive application of FS in the policy-making processes of IR. The idiosyncratic use of FS in IR policy-making leads to a methodological flaw that generates the clash of backcastings between the concerned actors. Relevant use of contemporary FS techniques in IR promises to overcome this flaw and methodologically synchronize diverse theories. Contemporary FS techniques in IR conjure up a convergence between the theories of IR beyond their hypothetical discrepancies. Abstract: This paper elaborates the state of Future in International Relations from a comparative theoretical perspective with regard to the selected methodological tools of Futures Studies. It, first, looks into the development of International Relations and Futures Studies to point out, how their contextual, conceptual and epistemological similarities and dissimilarities emerged in due course. It, then, analyses to what extent the methodological differences between selected Futures Studies techniques ( e.g. forecasting, trend analysis, Delphi, backcasting, causal layered analysis and integral futures approach) intersect with the conceptual and normative differences between contemporary theories of International Relations stemming from Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Post-structuralism, Normative Theory and Critical Theory. The paper characterizes the relevant futures techniques with reference to the theories of International Relations, and scrutinizes selected futuristic narratives of International Relations from a methodological perspective. It, then, elaborates how Futures Studies and International Relations can benefit from each other's strengths in terms of their methodologies and assumptions. The article finally explores to what extent the promises of Futures Studies techniques conjure up a convergence between different theories of International Relations.