A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. (September 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bakker, Alexander M.R.; Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 83(2016:Sep.)
• Page Start: 27
• Page End: 35
• Publication Date: 2016-09
• Subjects: Greenland ice sheet -- Semi-empirical model -- Sea level change -- Emulator -- Scenario -- Geo-engineering; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide important insights, but are often computationally too demanding to evaluate tail-area risks. Here we present SIMPLE, a physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. SIMPLE can skillfully reproduce the results from a three-dimensional ice sheet model and outperforms existing simple models, after similar calibration. We anticipate that SIMPLE will be calibrated to other ice sheet models and can provide a fast approximation (emulator) for such models in studies that require many model evaluations. Highlights: SIMPLE is a fast physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet. It provides fast approximations in studies that require many model evaluations. It skillfully reproduces 3D ice sheet model simulations over a wide range of forcings. SIMPLE outperforms existing simplified representations, after similar calibration.