Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa. Issue 13 (8th July 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Li, Laifang
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 43:Issue 13(2016)
• Page Start: 7152
• Page End: 7159
• Publication Date: 2016-07-08
• Subjects: hurricanes -- tropical cyclones -- seasonal predictability -- Africa -- outgoing longwave radiation; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069792
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite‐derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer‐term observed trends. Key Points: The July OLR field over Africa is correlated 0.75 with named Atlantic storms, 1979–2015 Hindcast predictions of named Atlantic storms based on July OLR succeed 87% of years 2001–2015 OLR predictors are statistically robust, highly detectable, and physically linked to the predictand