Some future scenarios of Russian natural gas in Europe. (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mitrova, Tatiana; Boersma, Tim; Galkina, Anna
• Is Part Of: Energy strategy reviews. Volume 11/12(2016)
• Page Start: 19
• Page End: 28
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: Natural gas -- European Union -- Russia -- Scenarios; Energy policy -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2211-467X

Abstract

Abstract: This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix going forward. Scenarios were calculated using the NEXANT world gas model (WGM) integrated in ERIRAS modeling information complex SCANER. The calculations in the WGM are based on demand and potential production forecast in each gas producing and/or gas consuming country of the world up to 2040. The paper continues with a discussion of the (limitations of the) most often debated alternatives to Russian gas. We conclude that remarkable little changes in the European natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions Russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the EU. Highlights: Scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix. Discussion of most often quoted alternative sources of EU gas supply. Russian gas continues to be very competitive on a marginal cost basis. EU market integration works, as most member states are resilient to supply shocks. Contrary to political desire we do not expect share of Russian gas to decline dramatically.