CDS Inferred Stock Volatility. Issue 8 (15th January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guo, Biao
• Is Part Of: Journal of futures markets. Volume 36:Issue 8(2016:Aug.)
• Page Start: 745
• Page End: 757
• Publication Date: 2016-01-15
• Subjects: Commodity exchanges -- Periodicals; Foreign exchange futures -- Periodicals; 332.632
• DOI: 10.1002/fut.21768
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0270-7314

Abstract

Abstract: Both CDS and out‐of‐money put option can protect investors against downside risk, so they are related while not being mutually replaceable. This study provides a straightforward linkage between corporate CDS and equity option by inferring stock volatility from CDS spread and, thus, enables a direct analogy with the implied volatility from option price. I find CDS inferred volatility (CIV) and option implied volatility (OIV) are complementary, both containing some information that is not captured by the other. CIV dominates OIV in forecasting stock future realized volatility. Moreover, a trading strategy based on the CIV–OIV mean reverting spreads generates significant risk‐adjusted return. These findings complement existing empirical evidence on cross‐market analysis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:745–757, 2016