Suppes' probabilistic theory of causality and causal inference in economics. Issue 3 (2nd July 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Reiss, Julian
• Is Part Of: Journal of economic methodology. Volume 23:Issue 3(2016)
• Page Start: 289
• Page End: 304
• Publication Date: 2016-07-02
• Subjects: econometric methodology -- patrick suppes -- causality -- inference; Economics -- Methodology -- Periodicals; 330.072
• DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2016.1189127
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1350-178X

Abstract

Abstract : This paper examines Patrick Suppes' probabilistic theory of causality understood as a theory of causal inference, and draws some lessons for empirical economics and contemporary debates in the foundations of econometrics. It argues that a standard method of empirical economics, multiple regression, is inadequate for most but the simplest applications, that the Bayes' nets approach, which can be understood as a generalisation of Suppes' theory, constitutes a considerable improvement but is still subject to important limitations, and that the currently fashionable 'design-based approach' suffers from the same flaws Suppes anticipated a long time ago. It then sketches an alternative in response, one that differs drastically from the formalisms Suppes endorsed but is consistent with his pragmatic general take on science.