Grid‐based simulation method for spatial electric load forecasting using power‐law distribution with fractal exponent. (7th October 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Melo, Joel D.; Carreno, Edgar M.; Padilha‐Feltrin, Antonio; Minussi, Carlos R.
• Is Part Of: International transactions on electrical energy systems. Volume 26:Number 6(2016:Sep.)
• Page Start: 1339
• Page End: 1357
• Publication Date: 2015-10-07
• Subjects: electric energy distribution system expansion planning -- fractal geometry -- spatial error analysis -- spatial load forecasting -- urban dynamics; Electric power -- Periodicals; Electric power systems -- Periodicals; Electrical engineering -- Periodicals; 621.3
• DOI: 10.1002/etep.2151
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2050-7038

Abstract

Summary: A grid‐based simulation method to forecast the spatial growth of load density in a distribution utility service zone is presented. The future load density is simulated considering a city's dynamic growth. A power‐law distribution with fractal exponent is used to determine how much the load density will increase/decrease depending on different factors like: natural growth following patterns, spontaneous new loads without predefined patterns, and urban poles growth that attract/repel new consumers. These factors are simulated using two modules that exchange information. The final result will display a map with future load density considering a heterogeneous distribution, which is the main contribution of this work. The method is tested on a real distribution system in a medium‐sized Brazilian city. The most important characteristic of this method is its high efficiency in spatial load density recognition with less input data than traditional spatial load forecasting methodologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.