A joint analysis of market indexes in credit default swap, volatility and stock markets. Issue 19 (20th April 2016) - Da Fonseca, José
ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the joint dynamics of the CDS, volatility and stock markets using both VAR and Markov regime-switching VAR models with market index data. It shows that the joint behaviour of the three markets is better characterized by the Markov model with two regimes corresponding to low- and high-volatile market conditions. The relationship between changes in the market indexes under a regime is consistent with theory and persistent; the information transmission process of shocks to the markets is similar for the two regimes with a more important role for CDS shock; and the volatility in the money market is an important determinant of regime-switching. The findings have practical implications, particularly for hedging strategies with market indexes under different market conditions.