Suppressive effects of fire prevention campaign in China: A time series analysis. (July 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lu, Song; Li, Guohui; Mei, Peng; Zhang, Heping
• Is Part Of: Safety science. Volume 86(2016)
• Page Start: 69
• Page End: 77
• Publication Date: 2016-07
• Subjects: Statistics -- Intervention model -- Time series -- Fire prevention campaign -- Disastrous fire; Industrial accidents -- Periodicals; Accident Prevention -- Periodicals; Safety -- Periodicals; Travail -- Accidents -- Périodiques; 363.11
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.02.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0925-7535

Abstract

Highlights: Suppressive effects of fire prevention campaigns precipitated by disastrous fires are explored. Six fire prevention campaigns followed disastrous fires are analyzed. The suppressive effect of fire prevention campaigns is not remarkable. The high-casualty fire series is not influenced by fire prevention campaigns. Abstract: In China, post-accident fire prevention campaigns are highly popular; many extensive safety campaigns have been carried out after the deadliest fire accidents. The aim of this work is to explore the suppressive effect of six fire prevention campaigns initiated after disastrous fires that resulted in very high numbers of casualties and significant losses. Time series intervention models are employed to investigate the effects of fire prevention campaigns on a monthly time series of fires (1997–2010), fire deaths (1997–2010) and high-casualty fires (2000–2010). The suppressive effects produced by the campaigns that followed the Luoyang Dongdu mall fire and the CCTV new building fire are also determined. The effects of the campaigns on the fire series following both fires exhibit an exponential decay pattern with a sudden "pulse" decrement after the start of the intervention followed by a gradual deceleration back to the original pre-intervention level; the most significant finding is that there is no permanent effect from these interventions. The effect of the campaign precipitated by the Luoyang Dongdu mall fire on the fire series is greater than that from the campaign initiated after the CCTV new building fire. The campaign precipitated by the Luoyang Dongdu mall fire also produces an approximate damped sine wave suppressive effect with a permanent decrement of 43 deaths. However, the high-casualty fire series is demonstrated to not be influenced by fire prevention campaigns precipitated by disastrous fires, which is inconsistent with the campaigns' hypotheses that high-casualty fires would decrease.