Can renewable energy power the future?. (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Moriarty, Patrick; Honnery, Damon
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 93(2016)
• Page Start: 3
• Page End: 7
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: Ecosystem services -- Energy constraints -- Energy storage -- Intermittency -- Net energy -- Renewable energy potential; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.051
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: Fossil fuels face resource depletion, supply security, and climate change problems; renewable energy (RE) may offer the best prospects for their long-term replacement. However, RE sources differ in many important ways from fossil fuels, particularly in that they are energy flows rather than stocks. The most important RE sources, wind and solar energy, are also intermittent, necessitating major energy storage as these sources increase their share of total energy supply. We show that estimates for the technical potential of RE vary by two orders of magnitude, and argue that values at the lower end of the range must be seriously considered, both because their energy return on energy invested falls, and environmental costs rise, with cumulative output. Finally, most future RE output will be electric, necessitating radical reconfiguration of existing grids to function with intermittent RE. Highlights: Published estimates for renewable energy (RE) technical potential vary 100-fold. Intermittent wind and solar energy dominate total RE potential. We argue it is unlikely that RE can meet existing global energy use. The need to maintain ecosystem services will reduce global RE potential. The need for storage of intermittent RE will further reduce net RE potential.