A decision support system for mission-based ship routing considering multiple performance criteria. (June 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Dong, You; Frangopol, Dan M.; Sabatino, Samantha
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 150(2016:Jun.)
• Page Start: 190
• Page End: 201
• Publication Date: 2016-06
• Subjects: Ship reliability -- Risk assessment -- Spectral fatigue analysis -- Operational conditions -- Multi-attribute utility theory -- Decision making; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.02.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Abstract: It is crucial to evaluate the risk associated with marine vessels subjected to inclement weather and sea conditions when developing a decision support system for ship routing. The generalized decision making framework developed in this paper performs a variety of tasks, including, but not limited to quantifying the flexural and fatigue performance of ship structures and employing multi-attribute utility theory to evaluate ship mission performance. A structural reliability approach is utilized to compute the probability of failure considering the uncertainties in structural capacity and load effects; specifically, effects of flexural and fatigue damage are investigated. The expected repair cost, cumulative fatigue damage, total travel time, and carbon dioxide emissions associated with ship routing are considered as consequences within the risk assessment procedure adopted in this paper. Additionally, the decision maker's risk attitude is integrated into the presented approach by employing utility theory. The presented methodology can assist decision makers in making informed decisions concerning ship routing. In order to illustrate its capabilities the approach is applied to the Joint High-speed Sealift Ship. Highlights: Multi-attribute utility theory is proposed for the ship routing decision making. Spectral-based fatigue damage and repair loss are computed. Travel time and CO2 emissions are incorporated within the decision making process. The attitude of the decision maker has significant effects on the utility value.