Evo-SETI Theory and Information Gap among Civilizations. (May 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Maccone, Claudio
• Is Part Of: Acta astronautica. Volume 122(2016)
• Page Start: 106
• Page End: 113
• Publication Date: 2016-05
• Subjects: SETI -- Darwinian Evolution -- Central Limit Theorem of Statistics -- Shannon Entropy -- lognormal probability distributions; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Outer space -- Exploration -- Periodicals; Astronautics; Periodicals; 629.405
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.12.049
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-5765

Abstract

Abstract: In a series of recent papers (Refs.[1] through[9] ) this author gave the equations of his mathematical model of Evolution and SETI, simply called "Evo-SETI". Key features of Evo-SETI are: 1) The Statistical Drake Equation is the extension of the classical Drake equation into Statistics. Probability distributions of the number of ET civilizations in the Galaxy (lognormals) were given, and so is the probable distribution of the distance of ETs from us. 2) Darwinian Evolution is re-defined as a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) in the number of living species on Earth over the last 3.5 billion years. Its mean value grew exponentially in time and Mass Extinctions of the past are accounted for as unpredictable low GBM values. 3) The exponential growth of the number of species during Evolution is the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of lognormal distributions ( b -lognormals, starting each at a different time b=birth) constrained between the time axis and the exponential mean value. This accounts for cladistics (i.e. Evolution Lineages). The above key features of Evo-SETI Theory were already discussed by this author in Refs.[1] through[9] . Now about this paper׳s "novelties". 4) The lifespan of a living being, let it be a cell, an animal, a human, a historic human society, or even an ET society, is mathematically described as a finite b -lognormal. This author then described mathematically the historical development of eight human historic civilizations, from Ancient Greece to the USA, by virtue of b -lognormals. 5) Finally, the b -lognormal׳s entropy is the measure of a civilization׳s advancement level. By measuring the entropy difference between Aztecs and Spaniards in 1519, this author was able to account mathematically for the 20-million-Aztecs defeat by a few thousand Spaniards, due to the latter׳s technological (i.e. entropic) superiority. The same might unfortunately happen to Humans when they will face an ET superior civilization for the first time. Now the question is: whenever a new exoplanet is discovered, where does that exoplanet stand in its evolution towards life as we have it on Earth nowadays, or beyond? This is the central question of SETI. This author hopes that his Evo-SETI Theory will help addressing this question when SETI astronomers will succeed in finding the first "life signatures" or even ET Civilizations.