Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. (March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hanretty, Chris; Lauderdale, Ben; Vivyan, Nick
• Is Part Of: Electoral studies. Volume 41(2016:Mar.)
• Page Start: 239
• Page End: 243
• Publication Date: 2016-03
• Subjects: National polling -- Constituency polling -- Uniform swing -- Generalized normal swing; Elections -- Periodicals; Voting -- Periodicals; 324.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-3794

Abstract

Abstract: We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model. Highlights: Integrates both national and constituency polling to provide seat forecasts. Provides consistent probabilistic forecasts across seat and national-level outcomes. Proposes a new swing model which avoids negative vote shares. Like other poll-based models, model displayed large total seat error (110 seats) and over-confident predictions.