From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2015 British general election. (March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ford, Robert; Jennings, Will; Pickup, Mark; Wlezien, Christopher
• Is Part Of: Electoral studies. Volume 41(2016:Mar.)
• Page Start: 244
• Page End: 249
• Publication Date: 2016-03
• Subjects: Forecasting -- British general election -- Vote intention -- Seat prediction; Elections -- Periodicals; Voting -- Periodicals; 324.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.013
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-3794

Abstract

Abstract: This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics. Highlights: Develops a method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls. The forecast combines relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information. The forecast better reflects the fragmentation and diversity found in the new era of five/six-party British politics.