Only conservatives are voting in the rain: Evidence from German local and state elections. (March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Arnold, Felix; Freier, Ronny
• Is Part Of: Electoral studies. Volume 41(2016:Mar.)
• Page Start: 216
• Page End: 221
• Publication Date: 2016-03
• Subjects: Turnout -- Partisan effects -- Rain -- Germany -- Municipalities -- Elections; D72 -- H70; Elections -- Periodicals; Voting -- Periodicals; 324.6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-3794

Abstract

Abstract: In this note, we use data from different elections in the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia between 1975 and 2010 to show that the Conservatives profit from lower voter turnout at the expense of the Social Democrats. We deal with the endogeneity of voter turnout by using election day rain as an instrumental variable. Our particular contribution is the comparison of municipal and state elections. Highlights: We examine the partisan effects of voter turnout. Rain is used as an IV for turnout. The data cover German municipal and state elections between 1975 and 2010. Conservatives profit from lower voter turnout at the expense of Social Democrats.