A general framework for analyzing techno-behavioural dynamics on networks. (April 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tran, Martino
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 78(2016:Apr.)
• Page Start: 225
• Page End: 233
• Publication Date: 2016-04
• Subjects: Emerging technology -- Decision analysis -- Complex networks -- Dynamical systems -- Sustainability; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: A general framework for assessing future impacts of technology on society and environment is presented. The dynamics between human activity and technological systems impact upon many processes in society and nature. This involves non-linear dynamics requiring an understanding of how technology and human behaviour influence each other and co-evolve. Conventionally, technological and behavioural systems are analyzed as separate entities. We develop an integrated theoretical and methodological approach termed techno-behavioural dynamics focussing on networked interactions between technology and behaviour across multiple system states. We find that positive feedback between technology learning, evolving preferences and network effects can lead to tipping points in complex sociotechnical systems. We also demonstrate how mean-field and agent-based models are complimentary for capturing a hierarchy of analytical resolutions in a common problem domain. Assessing and predicting co-evolutionary dynamics between technology and human behaviour can help avoid systems lock-in and inform a range of adaptive responses to environmental and societal risk. Highlights: Techno-behavioural dynamics is a new framework for assessing emergent technology. Feedback between technology, behaviour and networks can cause tipping points. Mean-field and agent-based methods are complimentary for assessing complex systems.