Extreme wind events in a complex maritime environment: Ways of quantification. Issue 149 (February 2016) - Patlakas, Platon
Abstract: The rising demand of energy consumption in isolated locations such as in islands leads in the expansion of on and off-shore wind farms. The optimization of the structural design of wind turbines for such applications requires a risk analysis that is made by using the definition of return periods of extreme events with respect to the lifespan of wind turbines. This work is focusing on the estimation and the analysis of extreme wind speeds by means of the corresponding return periods based on two methods: the Peaks Over Threshold and the Annual Maxima. In addition, different methodologies and tools are tested in order to achieve more accurate results. The data used for the application are both: observations (measurements from Met Stations located on Greek islands) and modeling (a 10-year model hindcast database). The sensitivity test results were used to adjust the methodologies and make 50-year extreme wind speed maps for Northeast Mediterranean (focusing on the sea and the islands). The outcome should be used as a guide for on and off-shore wind energy applications and other construction activities. Highlights: Estimation of extreme wind speeds by means of the corresponding return periods. Quantification of non-frequent events and the associated uncertainty . Applications to data from 9 Met Stations and a 10-year hindcast modeled dataset. Comparable results from the different methods Overestimation of the extreme values in modeled timeseries Extreme wind speed Atlas development for a complex maritime region.