The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times. (January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sardar, Ziauddin; Sweeney, John A.
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 75(2015:Nov.)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 13
• Publication Date: 2016-01
• Subjects: Postnormal times -- Complexity -- Methods -- Uncertainty -- Ignorance -- Menagerie of postnormal potentialities; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2015.10.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: A new and innovative method for futures research and foresight practitioners. Further enhancement and development of postnormal times theory. Development of new postnormal times concepts—Creep, Lag, and Burst. Analysis and design of varieties of ignorance and uncertainty. Introduction of the Menagerie of postnormal potentialities. Abstract: The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times is a new method for foresight and futures researchers and practitioners. Designed and developed to explore the complexity, chaos, and contradictions of postnormal times and what might come next, the three tomorrows method uses a multi-layered approach to situate and analyze trends, emerging issues, and imaginings of the future(s), including complex, horizonspecific forecasts. In this paper, we provide a theoretical overview of the key concepts underlying our approach, including the three forms of ignorance and uncertainty as well as the Menagerie of postnormal potentialities, which we developed as a mechanism for challenging deeply held convictions, illuminating entrenched contradictions, and enlivening novel considerations.