Randomness confidence bands of fractal scaling exponents for financial price returns. (February 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ibarra-Valdez, C.; Alvarez, J.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.
• Is Part Of: Chaos, solitons and fractals. Volume 83(2016)
• Page Start: 119
• Page End: 124
• Publication Date: 2016-02
• Subjects: Randomness -- Finite samples -- Confidence intervals -- Crude oil market -- USA stock market; Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Solitons -- Periodicals; Fractals -- Periodicals; Chaotic behavior in systems; Fractals; Solitons; Periodicals; 003.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.042
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-0779

Abstract

Highlights: A robust test for randomness of price returns is proposed. The DFA scaling exponent is contrasted against confidence bands for random sequences. The size of the band depends of the sequence length. Crude oil and USA stock markets have been rarely inefficient. Abstract: The weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) establishes that price returns behave as a pure random process and so their outcomes cannot be forecasted. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been widely used to test the weak-form of the EMH by showing that time series of price returns are serially uncorrelated. In this case, the DFA scaling exponent exhibits deviations from the theoretical value of 0.5. This work considers the test of the EMH for DFA implementation on a sliding window, which is an approach that is intended to monitor the evolution of markets. Under these conditions, the scaling exponent exhibits important variations over the scrutinized period that can offer valuable insights in the behavior of the market provided the estimated scaling value is kept within strict statistical tests to verify the presence or not of serial correlations in the price returns. In this work, the statistical tests are based on comparing the estimated scaling exponent with the values obtained from pure Gaussian sequences with the length of the real time series. In this way, the presence of serial correlations can be guaranteed only in terms of the confidence bands of a pure Gaussian process. The crude oil (WTI) and the USA stock (DJIA) markets are used to illustrate the methodology.