Prediction analysis model of integrated carrying capacity using set pair analysis. (February 2016) - Wei, Chao
Abstract: As a comprehensive capacity of nature, society and humans, integrated carrying capacity (ICC) is the driving force of regional socioeconomic development. Only when an ecosystem is under-loaded can socioeconomic development be sustainable. ICC is an accumulative total value of each indicator's carrying capacity, which reflects a static status. The ICC prediction analysis is one prerequisite to making economic development plans. In this paper, a dynamic prediction model is developed by using the model of set pair analysis (SPA) to predict the growth tendency of ICC. The model is tested in a case comprising eight coastal cities in Yangtze. (1) The average error rate of this prediction model is merely 0.38%, and the lowest error rate is 0.01%. The SPA model is better to predict ICC tendencies. (2) According to the national development plan, the eight cities' ICC is predicted in 2015. (3) The prediction model is a multiple method that can contain all indicators of ICC. This model can estimate the maximal carrying capacity of a natural ecosystem to make the most suitable economic development policy. The socioeconomic development must comply with the under-loaded capacity to maintain sustainable development. Highlights: The integrated carrying capacity (ICC) is accumulative total of each natural source. The socio-economic development prerequisite is natural eco-system under-loaded. The prediction analysis is an effective way to estimate the rationality of economic development, to maintain the sustainable development. The SPA model can predicate the ICC growth tendency, to check the rationality of each economic indicator.