A household-level approach to staging wildfire evacuation warnings using trigger modeling. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Li, Dapeng; Cova, Thomas J.; Dennison, Philip E.
• Is Part Of: Computers, environment and urban systems. Volume 54(2015)
• Page Start: 56
• Page End: 67
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Wildfire evacuation triggers -- Recommended evacuation departure time -- Evacuation zoning -- Staged evacuation planning; City planning -- Data processing -- Periodicals; Regional planning -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 303.4834
• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2015.05.008
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0198-9715

Abstract

Abstract: Wildfire evacuation trigger points are prominent geographic features (e.g., ridges, roads, and rivers) utilized in wildfire evacuation and suppression practices, such that when a fire crosses a feature, an evacuation is recommended for the communities or firefighters in the path of the fire. Recent studies of wildfire evacuation triggers have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and fire-spread modeling to calculate evacuation trigger buffers around a location or community that provide a specified amount of warning time. Wildfire evacuation trigger modeling has been applied in many scenarios including dynamic forecast weather conditions, community-level evacuation planning, pedestrian evacuation, and protecting firefighters. However, little research has been conducted on household-level trigger modeling. This work explores the potential uses of wildfire evacuation trigger modeling in issuing household-level staged evacuation warnings. The method consists of three steps: 1) calculating trigger buffers for each household; 2) modeling fire-spread to trigger the evacuation of all households; and 3) ranking households by their available (or lead) time, which enables emergency managers to develop a staged evacuation warning plan for these homes. A case study of Julian, California is used to test the method's potential and assess its advantages and disadvantages. Highlights: A bottom-up approach for staged wildfire evacuation warnings is presented. The approach integrates fire-spread and trigger modeling. Household-level wildfire trigger modeling is performed. A case study of Julian, California demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.