TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective. (15th January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, Hongjun; Chen, Wenying; Huang, Weilong
• Is Part Of: Applied energy. Volume 162(2016)
• Page Start: 1505
• Page End: 1514
• Publication Date: 2016-01-15
• Subjects: BEV battery electric vehicle -- CCS carbon capture and storage -- CNG compressed natural gas -- E15 a blend of 15% of ethanol and 85% of gasoline (in volume) -- ESD energy service demand -- ETSAP Energy Technology System Analysis Program -- FCEV fuel cell electric vehicle -- FE final energy -- FFV flex-fuel vehicle -- HEV hybrid electric vehicle -- IEA International Energy Agency -- LDV light duty vehicle -- LNG liquefied natural gas -- LPG liquefied petroleum gas; Transport sector -- Decarbonization -- Bottom-up analysis -- Biofuel -- TIMES model; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy conservation -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Periodicals; 621.042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.124
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-2619

Abstract

Highlights: China-TIMES and US-TIMES model with detailed transport descriptions are developed. Biofuel is the main carbon mitigation option in near-term. FCEVs will be developed earlier and faster in US than in China. The decarbonization of transport sector is less and later than other sectors. Decarbonizing the power sector deeply affects the transport sector. Abstract: Transport sector significantly influences the decarbonization of the entire energy system. In this study, carbon tax scenario analyses with application of the TIMES model are carried out for China and USA to advance the understanding of the transport service demands, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions from a comparison perspective. Model results suggest that liquid fuels will keep dominating the transport energy consumption, while biofuels and electrification will facilitate the decarbonization of the transport sector both in China and USA. However, substantial differences exist between the two countries regarding the transport development pathways. FCEVs will be developed earlier and faster in USA and can fulfill 10% of the road passenger services in 2050 in USA, while less than 2% in China in TAX20 scenario; Carbon tax will raise the total energy system cost by 24% in China and 8% in USA in 2050 in TAX50 scenario and the additional cost of electricity in USA will be lower than that in China. It's also observed that the transport sector reacts to the carbon policy less and later than other sectors.