A simplified real time method to forecast semi-enclosed basins storm surge. (5th November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pasquali, D.; Di Risio, M.; De Girolamo, P.
• Is Part Of: Estuarine, coastal and shelf science. Volume 165(2015)
• Page Start: 61
• Page End: 69
• Publication Date: 2015-11-05
• Subjects: Storm surge forecasting -- Real time forecast system -- Sea level forecast -- Artificial neural networks -- Physics based approach; Estuarine oceanography -- Periodicals; Coasts -- Periodicals; Estuarine biology -- Periodicals; Seashore biology -- Periodicals; Coasts; Estuarine biology; Estuarine oceanography; Seashore biology; Periodicals; 551.461805
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2015.09.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0272-7714

Abstract

Abstract: Semi-enclosed basins are often prone to storm surge events. Indeed, their meteorological exposition, the presence of large continental shelf and their shape can lead to strong sea level set-up. A real time system aimed at forecasting storm surge may be of great help to protect human activities (i.e. to forecast flooding due to storm surge events), to manage ports and to safeguard coasts safety. This paper aims at illustrating a simple method able to forecast storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins in real time. The method is based on a mixed approach in which the results obtained by means of a simplified physics based model with low computational costs are corrected by means of statistical techniques. The proposed method is applied to a point of interest located in the Northern part of the Adriatic Sea. The comparison of forecasted levels against observed values shows the satisfactory reliability of the forecasts.