Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty. (February 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 146(2016:Feb.)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 12
• Publication Date: 2016-02
• Subjects: Life prediction -- Bayesian inference -- Physics of Failure -- Uncertainty quantification -- Gas turbine disc; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Abstract: A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. Highlights: A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.