Predicting urban design effects on physical activity and public health: A case study. (September 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: MacDonald Gibson, Jacqueline; Rodriguez, Daniel; Dennerlein, Taylor; Mead, Jill; Hasch, Trisha; Meacci, Grant; Levin, Stuart
• Is Part Of: Health & place. Volume 35(2015:Sep.)
• Page Start: 79
• Page End: 84
• Publication Date: 2015-09
• Subjects: Built environment -- Health impact assessment -- Environmental health -- Chronic disease -- Physical activity; Health -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; Health services accessibility -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; Political planning -- Periodicals; Social medicine -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Health Policy -- Periodicals; Health Services Accessibility -- Periodicals; Public Health -- Periodicals; Public Policy -- Periodicals; Sociology, Medical -- Periodicals; Épidémiologie -- Périodiques; Politique sanitaire -- Périodiques; Santé, Services de -- Accessibilité -- Périodiques; Health services accessibility; Health -- Social aspects; Political planning; Public health; Social medicine; Periodicals; 613
• DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2015.07.005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1353-8292

Abstract

Abstract: With increasing global concerns about obesity and related health effects, tools to predict how urban form affects population physical activity and health are needed. However, such tools have not been well established. This article develops a computer simulation model for forecasting the health effects of urban features that promote walking. The article demonstrates the model using a proposed small-area plan for a neighborhood of 10, 400 residents in Raleigh, North Carolina, one of the fastest-growing and most sprawling U.S. cities. The simulation model predicts that the plan would increase average daily time spent walking for transportation by 17 min. As a result, annual deaths from all causes are predicted to decrease by 5.5%. Annual new cases of diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension are predicted to decline by 1.9%, 2.3%, 1.3%, and 1.6%, respectively. The present value of these health benefits is $21, 000 per resident.