A method for the evaluation of risk in IT projects. (1st March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rodríguez, Antonio; Ortega, Francisco; Concepción, Ramiro
• Is Part Of: Expert systems with applications. Volume 45(2016)
• Page Start: 273
• Page End: 285
• Publication Date: 2016-03-01
• Subjects: AHP -- FIS -- Fuzzy logic -- Risk assessment -- Project evaluation; Expert systems (Computer science) -- Periodicals; Systèmes experts (Informatique) -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 006.33
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2015.09.056
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0957-4174

Abstract

Highlights: A method for the evaluation of risk based on the combination of AHP (FAHP) and fuzzy inference system (FIS). Several advantages over classic implementations. A more flexible, intuitive, verifiable and easier way to implement risk evaluation incorporating graphical tools. Detection and analysis of rank reversal. Abstract: Information technology projects are particularly prone to failure due to their specific characteristics, making risk management become one of the critical elements in IT projects management. That is why several authors have developed risk evaluation methods, some of them based on fuzzy logic. This article proposes a new risk assessment method based in a combination of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and fuzzy inference system (FIS). FIS is used for the integration of the groups of risk factors. These risk factors are the evaluation criteria of a modified FAHP which minimizes the disadvantages of the classic implementation of FAHP in order to obtain a more intuitive and easily adjustable model for multicriteria decision analysis with a lower computational need. The proposed model takes into consideration the different levels of uncertainty, the interrelationship among groups of risk factors, and the possibility of adding or suppressing options without losing the consistency with previous evaluations. The new method is especially suitable for the evaluation of development projects in the area of IT in which multiple interrelated risk factors can be particularly uncertain and imprecise. To implement the evaluation method, a hierarchy of risk factors was implemented. A numerical example is presented with data from three actual cases of IT projects, showing the applicability of the new method, the suitability of the selected taxonomy, and the significance of a few risk factors. Several future lines of work are proposed.