Beyond the Magical Thinking Behind the Principal Principle. (21st April 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: James, Edward
• Is Part Of: Philosophy. Volume 90:Number 3(2015)
• Page Start: 479
• Page End: 503
• Publication Date: 2015-04-21
• Subjects: Philosophy -- Periodicals; 100
• DOI: 10.1017/S0031819115000121
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0031-8191

Abstract

Abstract: David Lewis's Principal Principle (PP) states that our credence in a single case follows from the general probability of all such cases. Against this stands the Challenge Argument (CA) – to show that the inference is justified. Recent (1) law-to-chance, (2) Bayesian, and (3) propensity theories of probability take up the challenge – but, I argue, fall short. Rather, we should understand (4) propensity via Aristotle's analysis of spontaneity (5) and probabilistic reasoning via the Anti-PP and (6) the practice of bundling one offs, where (7) forced bad-odds one offs illuminate how extensive a role luck plays in our lives.