Predicting severe wildfire years in the Florida Everglades. Issue 5 (1st June 2003)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Beckage, Brian; Platt, William J.
• Is Part Of: Frontiers in ecology and the environment. Volume 1:Issue 5(2003)
• Page Start: 235
• Page End: 239
• Publication Date: 2003-06-01
• Subjects: Ecology -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Ecology; Environmental sciences; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 577.05
• DOI: 10.1890/1540-9295(2003)001[0235:PSWYIT]2.0.CO;2
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1540-9295

Abstract

Abstract : Wildfires result in important ecological benefits to many ecosystems, but have costs associated with fire fighting and property loss. Accurate, timely forecasts of the severity of upcoming wildfire seasons could facilitate wildfire management, limiting the most destructive aspects of fires, while preserving their ecological benefits. We demonstrate an approach where time series models are used to predict the severity of the wildfire season in Everglades National Park in southern Florida 3 months and 1 year beforehand. Model predictions contained all obserations within a 90% credible interval and also anticipated severe wildfire seasons. These models may be used to implement more ecologically sound wildfire management.